In 2024, China’s PVA exports of 212,000 tons, an increase of 15.2%, becoming the highest level in history. Based on the price advantage of domestic PVA, the export orders of some main devices at the supply end of PVA are abundant, the atmosphere of export negotiation is good, and the export volume remains high.
China’s PVA price is the lowest in the world, the export advantage is obvious, domestic downstream user procurement to maintain just demand, under the influence of insufficient domestic demand to follow up, the export operation of PVA production enterprises is positive. Due to the influence of process and regional factors, the export order volume difference between the production enterprises at the supply side is obvious, and the space for continued export increment is limited by capacity constraints. In 2024, the export operation of PVA remained in a better state, and the export phenomenon caused by the threat of tariffs in the fourth quarter was superimposed, and the total export volume in the year was 212,000 tons, an increase of 15.2% year-on-year, which was the highest level in history.
In 2024, China’s overall PVA load is near 69%, an increase of 9.5% year-on-year. With the recovery of overseas demand, domestic PVA price advantage support, export demand continues to be strong, while the domestic downstream terminal reaction is flat, procurement remains just needed, PVA supply end manufacturers more implementation of limited production insurance strategy, the domestic market limited supply of some brands, support PVA market strong. In the fourth quarter, overseas importers increased procurement efforts in advance due to concerns about tariffs, and China’s polyvinyl alcohol manufacturers delivered advance pre-sale orders, and the export volume in 2024 became the highest level in history. In 2024, the profit environment of polyvinyl alcohol is in an ideal state, and the theoretical profit (including crude methyl acetate) is 3556 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.41%.
From the point of view of export destinations, India, Malaysia and South Korea ranked the top three, the main export direction to the surrounding areas of near-ocean transportation, 2024, overseas energy costs are high, the European region for domestic polyvinyl alcohol demand is stable, China’s exports to Europe and the United States than the same period last year more significant growth, support market people’s mentality.
From the perspective of export registration, Hubei, Jiangsu and Anhui are the top three, from the perspective of enterprise location, in addition to Ningxia and Hunan, the export volume of the main manufacturers and Sinopec chemical sales in the province is higher, and the export volume of other provinces has little change.
At present, China’s PVA production enterprises are still delivering pre-sale orders, some devices after the holiday maintenance plan, the supplier mentality is more supportive, the price market in the first half of the year or continue to firm, is expected in the second half of 2025 the domestic market can be adversely affected by tariffs, so it is expected that in the first half of 2025 the export volume of PVA will remain high, the second half of the year is expected to decline.